Global product markets weekly: gasoline cracks fall below fuel oil in Asia

The Dated Brent crude price underwent a further sharp decline during the week commencing 5th November, falling by US$3.40/bbl to average US$70.20/bbl. The announcement of waivers to allow eight countries to continue importing Iranian crude undermined the perception of upcoming tightness in crude supply. Weekly average prices have now fallen by over US$15.00/bbl since the start of October. Russia and Saudi Arabia have boosted crude output to alleviate market concerns about the loss of Iranian exports but, coupled with an unexpected increase in Libyan output, Q4 2018 looks oversupplied. We expect prices to stabilise and recover as attention turns to the lack spare production capacity.