Global product markets weekly: global gasoline glut continues to weigh down margins

Crude prices retreated in the week commencing December 10th, with North Sea Dated dropping $0.40/bbl to average $60.00/bbl for the week. Despite recently being supported by the OPEC / non-OPEC production cut agreement, signs of global demand weakness and a lower than expected US stock draw served to rein in the global benchmark. Concerns of US-China trade relations re-emerged, and the prospect of a weaker 2019 seems to be permeating financial markets around the world. Despite strong opposition from the Trump Administration, the possibility of a strong dollar remains substantial in 2019, further weakening purchasing power (in non US markets) in the dollar-indexed commodity markets. Our 2019 price forecast has the benchmark crude price averaging $65.60/bbl.