Commodity Market Report
Global products market weekly: Declining crude prices supported refining margins
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Report summary
The oil market weakened over the week as the US dollar firmed, and further signs emerged of weak economic data in China. China’s recent economic measures, which fell short of direct stimulus, also disappointed the market. Crude prices faced additional strain after the IEA revised its 2025 demand growth forecast downward. During the week, OPEC also cut its global oil demand forecast for the fourth consecutive month, leading to a further decline in oil prices. However, crude prices found some support later in the week owing to a decline in EIA’s inventory for gasoline and middle distillates. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average fell by US$2.71/bbl, in the week ended 15th November. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margins increased marginally by US$0.27/bbl to US$6.82/bbl owing to rise in HSFO cracks in Asia, ME and NWE. Weekly margins were at US$0.75/bbl higher than the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).
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