Global products market weekly: Margins fall with risk premiums on crude, product demand weakness

The oil market spiked on Monday as the Israel-Hamas war sparked concerns of supply disruptions from Middle East. As the market unwound risks premiums associated to wider implications of geopolitical instability, higher US crude inventories added downward pressure. However, prices closed higher on Friday as US imposed its first sanctions on two tanker companies that have breached the rules of the price cap mechanism and investors priced in the possibility that the conflict in the Middle East could widen as Israel begins ground raids inside Gaza over the weekend. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average decreased by US$1.06/bbl, in the week ended 13 October. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin decreased by US$0.98/bbl to US$4.80/bbl, with further losses in US gasoline cracks and weakness in European diesel cracks, which did not keep up with the rise in crude price. Weekly margins were at US$0.47/bbl above the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).