Global products market weekly: Margins weaken below 5y weekly moving average, prompting potential for run cuts in Asia

The oil market continued to fall as overall bearish sentiment remained, despite China’s GDP rising 4.5% y-o-y in Q1. Prompt crude demand remains under pressure, as global refining margins continued to decline on the back of OPEC’s cut to crude supply and collapse in global diesel cracks. Inflation also remains high, with both US and EU central banks expected to raise interest rates in the coming weeks. Price falls were tempered at the end of the week as European PMI data showed unexpected economic recovery in April, led by service sector strength that offset manufacturing weakness. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average declined US$2.47/bbl in the week ended 21 April. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin weakened by US$2.38/bbl to US$4.52/bbl, on the continued weakness in diesel cracks globally. Weekly margins were at US$2.38/bbl below the five-year historical average for the same week.