Global products market weekly: Middle distillate weakness sparks talk of potential run cuts

The oil market continued to slide amid rising economic concerns. Latest data showed the US economy continued to grow in Q1 2023 but much slower than expected and driven by consumer spending like both the EU and China. Oil market sentiment remains firmly focused on the uncertainty over further interest rate hikes and the potential risk posed by the US entering a recession. Price sentiment was further pressured as comments from OPEC+ indicated the group did not intend to cut production further despite lower prices. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average declined by US$2.86/bbl, in the week ended 28 April. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin declined US$0.38/bbl to US$4.28/bbl as global oil markets began to factor in a tighter supply outlook given the rising potential for economic run cuts later in the year. Weekly margins were US$0.17/bbl above the five-year historical average (excluding 2022) for the same week, indicating margins have returned to historical norms.​