Global products market weekly: Refinery maintenance moderates supply, supporting cracks

The oil market softened initially on potential weakness in Chinese demand recovery, with dismal industrial output; the strengthening of the US dollar, and, for the US economy, concerns about high inflation. These factors are keeping downward pressure on crude prices in place. Wood Mac is forecasting 2.2 million b/d year-on-year growth in global oil demand for this year. Midweek prices were supported by optimism around news that the US debt ceiling negotiations to avoid a default are continuing. North Sea Dated crude’s weekly average were down by US$0.36/bbl, in the week ended 19 May. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin strengthened by US$1.44/bbl to US$7/bbl, with stronger gasoline and middle distillate cracks. Weekly margins were at US$1.34/bbl above the five-year historical average for the same week.