Global products market weekly: Refining margins continue to weaken as gasoline cracks fall

Post registering a sharp decline last week, the oil market gained through the start of the week as EIA raised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1.1 million b/d from its earlier 0.9/million b/d and the US economic data showing an easing labour market and slowing inflation. However, further gains were hampered by a downward revision to the IEA’s oil demand growth forecast for 2024. The market was also pressured downward by reports from the EIA on rising crude and refined product inventories as well as expectations of a delay in interest rate cuts by the Fed. The weekly average for North Sea Dated crude in the week ending 14th June increased by US$4.01/bbl. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margins contracted by US$0.15/bbl to US$4.51/bbl, owing to a decline in gasoline and fuel oil cracks. Weekly margins were US$0.35/bbl below the five-year historical average for the same week (excluding 2022).