Global refinery closure threat update 2025

Although oil demand keeps growing post 2025 outpacing global capacity additions and keeping refining margins healthy, the risk of refinery closure persist. In a scenario of oil demand peaking by early 2030s, site rationalisation mainly in high-risk could sustain refinery utilisation. Loss of future competitiveness against more complex and integrated sites, impact of petrochemical uplift loss due to steam cracking units closure risk, absence low carbon projects and non-core site are aspects that can lead to closure. In this refinery closure threat analysis update, Wood Mackenzie presents the methodology and results to reflect the global nature of the refining industry. Major enhancements include the assessment of a list of global refineries, the petrochemical contribution from our REM-Chemicals offering and the change in net cash margin post-investment.