Insight
Global refinery closure threat update 2026
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Report summary
Although oil demand keeps growing post-2025, outpacing global capacity additions and keeping refining margins healthy, the risk of refinery closures persists. With oil demand peaking by the early 2030s, site rationalisation, mainly in high-risk assets, could sustain global refinery utilisation. Competition against more complex and integrated sites, impact of petrochemical uplift loss due to steam cracker closures and absence of low carbon projects are aspects that can lead to closure. In this refinery closure threat analysis update, Wood Mackenzie presents the methodology and results to reflect the risk of closure across the refining landscape. This analysis assesses a list of global refineries, including their petrochemical contribution from our REM-Chemicals offering and the change in net cash margin post-investment. Our 2026 update now includes our new HEFA investment index which assesses a refineries readiness towards a complete HEFA biofuels transformation by 2035.
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