India’s lockdown puts off the last hope for oil demand growth in 2020

Following the India nationwide 21-day lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak, we expect a serious impact on India’s oil demand and refinery run rates. We estimate that India's oil demand will decline by about 870,000 b/d year-on-year in April and in response refinery runs will decline by about 1.2 million b/d. If the restrictions are not carried forward beyond mid-April, we expect oil demand and refinery run rates to recover gradually and hence for whole of 2020, oil demand is expected broadly flat year-on-year, while refinery runs are expected to decline by 320,000 b/d year-on-year.