Mexico product markets 2021 outlook to 2050

Mexico oil demand still suffers from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expecting to return until 2027 to the demand levels of 2019. Nevertheless, the Mexican government continues to support PEMEX refining commitment. With crude runs struggling this year to maintain levels above 700,000 b/d year-to-day increasing runs during the first half of 2021, this has created a side-effect of higher fuel oil production. Despite the Mexican government’s efforts to increase domestic refinery supply, we anticipate Mexico will remain a net importer, with a net gasoline deficit of 681,000 b/d by 2050 as electric vehicle penetration occurs at a slower pace than the rest of North America. In this update, we are extending our utilization, refinery supply outlook beyond 2027 to 2050, utilizing the Wood Mackenzie Refinery Supply Model.