Navigating IMO 2020 and the global pandemic: updated analysis of the marine fuel sulphur changes

The transition of the global shipping fleet to lower sulphur fuels has progressed relatively smoothly so far. Most ships have switched to using very low sulphur fuel oil, for which supply has been sufficient to meet demand, while the refining industry has largely absorbed the surplus high sulphur resid. But has the onset of the global coronavirus pandemic masked the true extent of the change? As transport fuel demand and refinery operating rates rise again and as OPEC+ production cuts are gradually rolled back, how will the market respond?