North America product markets short-term outlook May 2021

This monthly update incorporates price forecasts and differentials, crude runs, refining margins and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022. We are now publishing full product balances for the United States’ sub-regions, or PADDs. We have also broken out international movements for each PADD, to better assess trends in the coastal PADDs. See the data sheet for these new addition. For increased insight into our US forecasts, we have added a methodology worksheet that outlines how we use EIA statistics to generate forecasts. For example, several metrics are required to calculate the US refinery yield of gasoline. Any instances where we have chosen to deviate from the EIA methodology are also listed. Please contact our analysts with any questions or feedback about this new enhancement.