Oil products price forecast mid-month update August 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for August 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Global refining margins have risen to the highest since October 2022 in the first two weeks of August. The increase was primarily driven by the resurgence in global middle distillate cracks and high sulphur fuel oil, reflecting the tightness in medium/heavy sour crude grades. Demand for gasoline in the US and supportive jet demand across Europe over the summer period remain the key drivers for Atlantic basin margins, while China’s higher runs and forecast surge in product exports will limit the upside to Asian refining margins in the near term. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 September 2023.