Oil products price forecast mid-month update December 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for December 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Distillate cracks have continued to drop in December, with global inventories building heading into the new year. Meanwhile naphtha and gasoline have showed surprising resilience during the off-season for demand, and fuel oil has tightened significantly leading to a surge in cracks. With the additional OPEC+ cuts set to begin shortly, markets will be watching for signs of tightening supply, along with winter heating demand as signposts headed into 2024. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 8 January 2024.