Oil products price forecast mid-month update January 2024

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for January 2024 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. We have only made minor changes to our price forecast since our last update. Increasing tensions in the Middle East and the start of spring maintenance have offset seasonal product stock builds to support stronger product cracks. Several refiners in key export hubs have already kicked off spring turnarounds, which should help to limit further increases in product stocks. Our ex-RVO global composite refining margin has increased by US$1/bbl to US$6.53/bbl in January as stronger middle distillate cracks have compensated for weakness in HS fuel oil. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 2 February 2024.