Oil products price forecast mid-month update July 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for July 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Global refining margins have remained below the June monthly average in the first few weeks of July, despite the rebound in middle distillate cracks in the Atlantic basin and support from US gasoline cracks. Product cracks have not kept pace with the increase in outright crude prices while narrower light-heavy crude differentials are directly impacting refining margins. Demand for gasoline in the US and supportive jet demand across Europe over the summer period remain the key drivers for Atlantic basin margins, while China’s higher runs and forecast surge in product exports will limit the upside to Asian refining margins in the near term. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 August 2023.