Oil products price forecast mid-month update March 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for March 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update on 2 March. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite was marginally higher than the February month average. Global distillate cracks have remained rangebound as weaker seasonal demand has offset lower refinery supply as maintenance season in the US and Europe ramps up. The regrade value has narrowed sharply in Europe and Asia, lowering jet cracks by over US$5/bbl compared to our monthly update. Atlantic basin product cracks remain highly susceptible to spikes in the coming weeks as French refinery workers' strikes continue with no clear resolution or fixed end date. Any escalation in the outages adds upside risks to margins. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 3 April 2023.