Oil products price forecast mid-month update September 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 16 September 2021

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Report summary

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for September 2021 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month. These changes reflect recent data releases and major market developments since our last update on 1 September. For this mid-month update we have revised our September monthly Brent price outlook to align with our Macro Oils Service short-term September Outlook. For Q4 2021, we continue to expect slightly weaker prices from Q3 2021 levels. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin increased in the first half of September to the highest monthly average since July 2019. Strong gasoline cracks in the Atlantic basin continue to underpin global refining margins. High natural gas prices will further strengthen global fuel oil cracks in Q4 2021. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will published on 1 October 2021.