Oil products price forecast mid-month update September 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide a mid-month update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for September 2023 have been updated to reflect the oil price movements so far this month since our last update. Global refining margins have remained elevated in the first few weeks of September, as diesel cracks have moved higher even with the announcement of China’s third batch of export quotas. Gasoline cracks have started to fall seasonally, with the shift to winter gasoline in the US helping to ease some of the prompt supply tightness. However, extensions of the Saudi/Russia production cuts will continue to put pressure on distillate production this Fall, as European refiners struggle to maximise diesel yields with lighter crude slates. The next full update to our prices and margins forecast will be published on 1 September 2023.