Oil products price forecast update December 2021

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. Global margins fell in November as demand concerns rose throughout the month, while the last week of the month saw a further sharp decline triggered by the emergence of the new Omicron variant. We expect the global margins to continue falling sharply in December, given the short-term demand concerns and the delayed response by global refiners to reduce run rates. Thereafter the global margin recovers to average US$3.70/bbl in Q1 2022 and US$4.10/bbl in Q2 2022 The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Thursday 16 December.