Oil products price forecast update December 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin fell in November reaching close to the post-Ukraine war low point set in September. The fall was broadly based throughout the regions, as middle distillate and gasoline cracks softened. In the Atlantic Basin the lower margins were predominantly supply-side based as refinery crude runs recovered from the lows of October. Demand-side weakness fueled the fall in Asian margins as Chinese demand expectations continued to deteriorate, supporting higher exports. We expect the global composite margin to recover in Q1 2023, led by a global spike in middle distillate cracks as the Russian product export ban begins in February.