This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2022 on a regional level. Our global composite monthly refining margin declined US$0.41/bbl in December to US$1.12/bbl. driven by weakness in middle and heavy distillate cracks. The first week of the month saw the value collapse to US$0.40/bbl, the lowest since early August. In the second half of December the composite margin recorded consecutive weekly increases and rose to US$2.61/bbl, marginally eclipsing the October peak, to the highest value since April. The recovery was led by strength in light product cracks in all regions. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Monday 18 January.