Oil products price forecast update March 2022

This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2023 on a regional level. For this update we have made an upward revision to our 2022 Brent price forecast from the early February short term outlook to US$89.20/bbl, reflecting tighter fundamentals and the rapidly increasing geopolitical risk premium. Our near-term refining outlook further improved from our February monthly view, as Atlantic basin middle distillate balances continued to tighten. Complex refiners that can process cheaper sour crude in regions with lower natural gas prices are set to benefit most from the recent shifts in crude differentials. We expect the global composite margin to increase sharply in March. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published by close of business Wednesday 16 March.