Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast update May 2023
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Global refining margins have crashed to 14-month lows in recent weeks as the supportive factors underpinning global diesel cracks have been priced out of the market. Our global refining composite margin now sits just US$0.3/bbl above the historic five-year average (excluding 2022) and is US$18/bbl lower than those witnessed at the end of April 2022. Gross refining margins for simpler refining configurations in both Asia and Europe are now borderline negative. This supports a downward revision to global crude runs in Q2 2023 and Q3 2023.
Table of contents
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Global margins revert to historical levels on higher Russian supply and distillate weakness
- Brent Price Outlook
- Key changes to our view
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
Tables and charts
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What's included
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