Oil products price forecast update May 2024

The excel files associated with this report provide an update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for May 2024 have been updated to reflect the latest supply and demand changes in our balance forecast. Product cracks in April fell, as global distillate margins continued to slide on increasing supply length heading into the Summer. While rising seasonal gasoline demand continues to prop up gasoline above diesel, we expect the trend to be short-lived, with the start of gasoline production from Dangote in Q3 along with rising diesel demand helping to flip markets back towards a distillate-led mode. In addition to shifting product balances, markets have also turned bearish given a mix of weaker economic data and the potential for a cease-fire in Gaza, which has the potential to further pull-down freight rates from their Q1 highs. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published on 16 May 2024.