Commodity Market Report
Oil products price forecast update October 2022
Report summary
This update incorporates all of the price forecasts, crude differentials and refining margins through to end-2024 on a regional level. Our monthly ex-RVO Global Composite margin fell in September to the lowest monthly average since February 2022. Weaker middle distillate cracks weighed on global margins as substantially higher forecast Chinese exports weakened Asian markets, boosting the likely East-West flows in Q4 2022, and partly offsetting the high western hemisphere refinery maintenance scheduled over the next two months. We have revised global margins down through Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, reflecting the lower outright price environment but also the impact of higher Chinese product exports.
Table of contents
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Global margins rebound through Q4 2022 despite higher Chinese exports as Europe distillate balances tighten
- Brent Price Outlook
- Crude price and differential analysis
- Regional refining margin analysis
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