Oil products price forecast update September 2023

The excel files associated with this report provide an update to our short-term products prices and margins forecasts. Prices and margins for September 2023 have been updated to reflect the latest supply and demand changes in our balance forecast. Global refining margins remained strong through August driven by sustained elevated cracks for gasoline and distillates in the Atlantic Basin. August average global composite margins were about US$5/bbl over the July average. Diesel is forecast to remain tight for the remainder of 2023, as maintenance in the Middle East and Asia along with already low stocks in Europe will apply pressure to the market. China’s product export quotas are expected to do little to alleviate the tightness in the market, with refiners still trying to balance short markets in gasoline and diesel. The next update to our prices and margins forecast will be our mid-month update published on 18 September 2023.