Philippines product markets 2021 outlook to 2050

Philippines had a total deficit of about 283,000 b/d for its oil products in 2020, with the deficit expected to increase to 364,000 b/d in 2021 as the economy recovers. The country had large deficits in diesel/gasoil, gasoline, and LPG. Jet/kerosene, naphtha, and fuel oil were in slight deficit. Oil product demand fell to 383,000 b/d in 2020 from 493,000 b/d in 2019, due to the impact of Covid-19. However, demand is expected to recover by 2022. In the long term, demand is forecast to continue to grow based on an average growth rate of 1.1% between 2020 and 2050, reaching 662,000 b/d in 2050. There is only one refinery in the Philippines as of 2021, with a total refining capacity of 180kb/d, following the shut of Tabangao refinery in 2020. There is no firm refinery investment in our view before 2027.