Regional product markets short-term outlook August 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. The major change to our Asian outlook this month relates to our H2 2021 view on China. With expectations in China export quota increased from last month, we have adjusted crude runs from India and Singapore lower. In the Middle East, we now assume test runs at Al-Zour start from September with the ramping up of runs expected from November into 2022. We have also adjusted our view on historical Iranian crude runs and lowered our forecast by 100kb/d through H2 2021 and 200kb/d through 2022 to reflect the ongoing sanctions and slower recovery due to sustained COVID outbreaks. With US gasoline demand aligned with our previous outlook, we have retained our previous US crude run forecast. The recovery of European crude runs has remained muted through June and July despite sustained gasoline export demand to North America and West Africa.