Regional product markets short-term outlook July 2021

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2022 on a regional level. In response to the continued recovery in North American demand, US crude runs rebounded sharply in June. We have therefore revised US crude runs up through H2 2021. European crude runs remain underpinned by gasoline export demand, but with lower trans-Atlantic flows we have revised European summer crude runs down. The most significant change to our Asian outlook this month relates to our H2 2021 view on China. Crude import quotas for independent Chinese refines have been cut and we expect 2nd half product export quotas to also be slashed. We maintain our view that Atlantic basin crude runs continue to recover a faster pace than those east of Suez in Q3 2021, despite the increasing cases of the Delta variant.