Regional product markets short-term outlook July 2023

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2025 on a regional level. In the near term, we have made a 200 kb/d downward revision to Q2 2023 runs. This is mainly driven by lower runs in the Middle East and across Europe given unplanned refinery downtime, offset by stronger North American and higher China runs. Sustained high China crude runs have still not resulted in higher product exports, supporting our view of a seasonal build in product inventories. We have revised China runs higher this update through Q3 and Q4 2023 despite a downward revision to demand. We, therefore, expect higher product exports in the coming months.