Regional product markets short-term outlook June 2023

This update incorporates all of the regional crude runs and product-by-product supply-demand balances through to end-2024 on a regional level. In the near term, we have made an upward revision to Q2 2023 runs. This is mainly driven by substantially higher China runs in April and stronger European runs as maintenance ended sooner than forecast. These increases offset the impact of a decrease to Total North and Latin American crude runs. Sustained high China crude runs did not lead to a spike in product exports given weakening export margins and implied domestic demand. We have revised both demand and crude runs higher in this update, with exports remaining elevated in line with our previous forecasts. This continues to add pressure to Asia ex-China crude runs through into Q3 2023.