Commodity Market Report

Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

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15 July 2019

Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

Report summary

In 2018, total products supply was in a position of surplus in the Russian Federation relative to demand. A large diesel/gasoil surplus is growing while the fuel oil surplus is narrowing on the back of ongoing refinery upgrades, as well as run cuts at low complexity sites. Russia has a smaller surplus of LPG, naphtha, gasoline and jet/kerosene. Overall, the Russian Federation has a relatively flat total product surplus in the medium term as high fuel oil yielding refineries struggle with the new export duty system and are forced to reduce crude runs, while others, who have completed upgrades, see a recovery in margins and crude throughputs. It is important to note that rouble price developments do affect refinery operations, and strengthening oil prices coupled with a lag in the rouble recovery has been supporting crude throughputs in 2017 and 2018. In the long-term, relatively stagnant demand results in a stable total product surplus.

Table of contents

  • LPG
  • Naphtha
  • Gasoline
  • Jet/other kerosene
  • Diesel/gasoil
  • Fuel oil
    • Gasoline
    • Diesel/gasoil
    • Fuel oil
  • Russian Tax Manoeuvre
    • Diesel investments
    • Gasoline investments
    • Crude production
    • Crude trade
    • Crude quality
  • Refinery supply
    • NGLs
    • Biofuels
  • Net exporter of LPG
  • Net exporter of naphtha
  • Net exporter of gasoline
  • Net exporter of jet/kerosene
  • Net exporter of diesel/gasoil
  • Net exporter of fuel oil

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

  • Liquid road fuel demand
  • Total car parc (passenger vehicle stock)
  • Share of car parc by fuel type
  • Demand forecast
  • Russian oil and product export tax regime
  • Refinery capacity investments 2019-2025
  • Refinery capacity by type
  • Refinery throughputs and utilisation
  • Refinery throughputs and utilisation
  • Refinery production
  • Refinery yields (wt %)
  • Product balances - all supply versus demand
  • Crude slate by source (2018)
  • Change in crude slate (2018-2025)
  • Crude slate by quality
  • Non refinery supply by product
  • Non refinery supply by source
  • Historical net product trade

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Russian Federation.xlsx

    XLSX 1.12 MB

  • Document

    Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

    ZIP 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Russian Federation product markets long-term outlook H1 2019

    ZIP 1.83 MB

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