Singapore product markets 2021 outlook to 2050

Singapore had a total net key product deficit of 609,000 b/d in 2020, which is forecast to increase slightly to a deficit of 623,000 b/d in 2021. The deficits result from large fuel oil and relatively smaller naphtha deficits, and partially offset by surpluses in gasoline and middle distillates. The significant deficit in fuel oil is due to the high level of international marine bunker demand. Demand in 2020 fell to 1.46 million b/d (from 1.56 million b/d), impacted by the aviation sector, while the bunker sector, the main contributor to Singapore's demand, remained firm. Total product demand in Singapore is forecast to decline to 1.11 million by 2050 as a result of declining bunker demand (replacement by LNG) and growing electrification of vehicles. Supply will decline with the announced reduction of 200,000 b/d CDU capacity at Shell's Bukom refinery in 2023 which is forecast to have a positive effect on long term utilisation rates.