Singapore product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

Singapore had a net deficit of 638,000 b/d of total key products in 2020, as a result of large fuel oil and relatively small naphtha deficits, partially offset by surpluses of gasoline and middle distillates. The significant deficit in fuel oil is due to the high level of imports to meet international marine bunker demand. Demand in 2020 fell only slightly to 1.5 million b/d (from 1.6 million b/d) as the bunker sector, the main contributor to Singapore's demand, remained firm. Total product demand in Singapore is forecast to decline to 1.2 million up to 2050 as a result of declining bunker demand (replacement by LNG) and growing electrification of the carparc. Supply will decline with the announced reduction of 250,000 b/d CDU capacity at Shell's Bukom refinery in 2023 which is forecast to have a positive effect on long term utilisation rates.