Name: Surging RIN prices and an uncertain future
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 136478
Price: 900 USD
Availability: OnlineOnly
Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 27 April 2021

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Report summary

The United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has garnered more headlines in 2021 than any year since 2013 when the program was at a pivotal crossroads for the future of biofuels blending. RIN prices are at record highs as biofuel feedstock costs have surged and legislative uncertainty clouds the program's future outlook for refiners. Even though a Supreme Court ruling later this year could send shock waves through the biofuels and refining industries, the EPA's new direction on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) gives us a road map for the future.

Introduction
How does the RFS program work?
Why did all RIN prices drop from 2018 to 2020?
Court ruling reverses the slide
High RIN costs are distorting arbitrage pricing
Expect many unanswered questions to be resolved in 2021

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Table 1: EPA RFS biofuel blending mandate 2020Figure 1: EPA RIN SchematicFigure 2: Annual RINs generated by type

Figure 3: RIN and RVO pricing (2016-present)Figure 4: Conventional RIN and corn pricing (2014-present)Figure 5: Corn and soybean pricing (2019-present)Figure 6: US Gulf Coast FOB cargo vs Northwest Europe FOB cargo price (US$/bbl)