Insight
Surging RIN prices and an uncertain future
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) has garnered more headlines in 2021 than any year since 2013 when the program was at a pivotal crossroads for the future of biofuels blending. RIN prices are at record highs as biofuel feedstock costs have surged and legislative uncertainty clouds the program's future outlook for refiners. Even though a Supreme Court ruling later this year could send shock waves through the biofuels and refining industries, the EPA's new direction on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) gives us a road map for the future.
Table of contents
- Introduction
- How does the RFS program work?
- Why did all RIN prices drop from 2018 to 2020?
- Court ruling reverses the slide
- High RIN costs are distorting arbitrage pricing
- Expect many unanswered questions to be resolved in 2021
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Table 1: EPA RFS biofuel blending mandate 2020Figure 1: EPA RIN SchematicFigure 2: Annual RINs generated by type
-
Figure 3: RIN and RVO pricing (2016-present)Figure 4: Conventional RIN and corn pricing (2014-present)Figure 5: Corn and soybean pricing (2019-present)Figure 6: US Gulf Coast FOB cargo vs Northwest Europe FOB cargo price (US$/bbl)
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
The circular packaging puzzle: 5 pieces shaping an uncertain picture
Sustainable packaging growth will depend on pricing, legislation, brand commitments, chemical recycling and bottlenecks.
$900
Insight
Higher targets, tighter markets: the new reality under the updated US Renewable Fuel Standard
RFS Set 2 turns up the pressure on US biofuel supply. Higher mandates, tighter balances and rising RIN prices define the road to 2027.
$900
Insight
Middle East conflict: Asia retail fuels - Absorbing the shock, deferring the cost
An assessment of fiscal burden on APAC governments due to elevated crude prices
$900
