Shell’s Tabangao refinery closure in the Philippines speaks a lot about mounting pressure on the refining industry. Global refining market enters a long period of overcapacity. Refinery margins reach bottom of cycle around 2024, putting pressure on weaker refinery sites to reduce utilisation rates or close. A strong competitive position is essential to be a survivor during this downturn. Refiners should focus on selecting capital projects to improve margins, build flexibility to process a wide range of crudes, optimise shipping costs, increase flexibility to shift yields towards higher value products and capture integration synergies with chemicals.