Taxing times for UK refineries? Update: A closer look at trade

The United Kingdom (UK) has declared its post-Brexit tax regime that will be applied from 1 January, 2021. Specifically, the EU tax on petrol imports of 4.7% will be replaced with a 4% tariff on global petrol imports to the UK. In this analysis, we use our PetroPlan refinery simulation model to quantify the effect on refinery margins and production at the individual assets, and utilise our Refinery Supply Model to assess the implications this may have on the wider market and trade. Utilising Genscape and our Product Market Service data we take a closer look at UK trade patterns in this update in order to assess the real impact these changes may have on domestic prices.