Thailand retail fuels long-term outlook

Gasoline and diesel demand for use in road transport are forecast to grow out to 2035 driven by increasing car ownership and freight movements in the commercial sector. Beyond 2035, road fuel demand begins to decline as it is eroded by electrification of the passenger car fleet. Increasingly, we expect to see a higher penetration of hybrid and electric vehicles. This change is led by the government's push for greater energy efficiency in the transport sector. Gasoline car penetration is expected to increase in the medium term as consumers switch away from diesel, but gradually loses momentum in the longer term as sales of hybrids and electric vehicles begin to grow. The Thai government has been supportive of biofuel in the transportation sector since 2000. Due to price incentives and excise tax reduction, most of the fuels sold today are biofuel blends. In addition, retail stations receive a marketing subsidy for each litre of ethanol blends sold.