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The Majors in crisis - will downstream go from zero to hero?

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13 March 2020

The Majors in crisis - will downstream go from zero to hero?

Report summary

The oil and gas industry is facing its second existential crisis of the decade. But this time, it really is different. This time around, oil demand is significantly weaker as the coronavirus outbreak depresses global economic growth. We believe downstream will still help cushion the blow from lower oil prices in 2020. With the widening of crude differentials as Middle East and Russian production of medium/sour crude grows, we expect a margin uplift for complex refiners in Europe and Asia. Marketing will also provide some stability with global trading providing upside in this period of high volatility.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • What was the refining outlook before the oil price crash?
    • Integration: there's value in it
    • Refining - size matters
    • Retail keeps giving
    • Trading - a bet on volatility
    • Chemicals - not this time

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Supermajors: downstream return on capital employed
  • WM global composite refining margin
  • Supermajors: downstream cash flow as a % of total
  • Supermajors: downstream free cash flow by company
  • Supermajors: downstream capex as a % of total
  • Supermajors: downstream capex by company
  • Supermajors' global production vs refining capacity
  • Supermajor's retail vs refining exposure by region

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    The Majors in crisis - will downstream go from zero to hero?

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