Commodity Market Report

Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

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16 November 2018

Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

Report summary

Despite the country's recent geopolitical risks and devaluation of the Turkish Lira, Turkey's oil products demand remains on a solid upward trajectory and is considered to be the largest growth market in Europe. Government actions to stop the fraudulent use of base oil as diesel has reduced illegal fuel sales. SOCAR's 10Mt/yr Aliaga refinery opened in 2018 - breaking the long-held Tupras refining monopoly. The retail landscape changed drastically in 2010 and 2015 with the introduction of five year service station dealer contracts. A key feature of the retail market remains the dominance of the DODO operating model. Price caps introduced by regulators in recent years have raised concerns about the long-term profitability for fuels marketers in Turkey. Poor margins drove Total to sell its retail fuel business in 2016. OMV followed suit in 2017, selling its leading Petrol Ofisi network to Vitol as part of a broader portfolio optimisation programme. 

Table of contents

    • Market drivers
    • Outlook
    • Gasoline
    • Jet/kerosene
    • Diesel/gasoil
    • Fuel oil
    • Regulatory issues
    • Product quality
  • Trade
    • Fuels retailing
      • Volumes
      • Overall network development
      • International oil companies
        • Petrol Ofisi (Vitol)
        • Shell Turcas (STAS)
        • BP
        • Total/Demirören
        • Gulf (Delta)
        • LUKOIL/Akpet
      • Independent groups
        • Opet
        • Petline
        • M-Oil
        • Others
      • Network efficiency
        • Network development and average site throughput
      • Performance pacesetters in the retail market
      • Non-fuel retailing
    • Commercial fuels
      • Motor fuels (gasoline/diesel)
      • Industrial/domestic gasoil
      • Aviation kerosene
      • Heavy fuel oil
      • Marine bunkers
      • LPG
        • LPG demand breakdown
      • Lubricants
      • Bitumen
    • Fuels marketing margins
      • Retail fuels marketing
    • Storage and distribution infrastructure
    • Regional storage capacity
    • Independent petroleum product storage
    • Izmir refinery profile

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

  • Key demand indicators
  • Total demand
  • Annual demand change
  • Demand by product
  • Demand by sector
  • Trade balance
  • Trade: Table 1
  • Gasoline - net exporter
  • Trade: Image 3
  • Trade: Table 2
  • Diesel/gasoil - net importer
  • Trade: Image 5
  • Trade: Table 3
  • Car parc by fuel type
  • Diesel/gasoil demand by sector
  • Fuel oil demand by sector
  • Demand forecast
  • Infrastructure: Image 1
  • Infrastructure: Table 1
  • Independent storage facilities
  • Pipeline capacity and ownership
  • Crude input slate
  • Infrastructure: Table 4
  • Infrastructure: Table 5
  • Infrastructure: Table 6
  • Kirikkale refinery profile
  • Retail fuel volumes
  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Retail market shares
  • Network effectiveness ratio: ratio of share of fuel sales to share of sites
  • Jet fuel market shares
  • Heavy fuel oil market shares
  • Margins: Table 1
  • Margins: Table 2
  • Market structure: Image 2
  • Market structure: Image 6
  • Total LPG market shares
  • Bottled LPG market shares
  • Autogas market shares

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Turkey downstream oil long-term outlook

    PDF 4.60 MB