Commodity Market Report
United States product markets long-term outlook H2 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Long-term outlook for the fundamentals of the United States oil products market. The second half of 2020 brought profound shifts to US refined product markets. While the demand destruction did not deepen from the lows seen in April, the recovery has been significantly prolonged compared to our H1 2020 outlook. The US supply landscape has permanently changed after a wide swath of announced closure in 2020. The two biggest market-shifting shutdowns were Marathon Martinez (160,000 b/d) in PADD 5 and Shell Convent (250,000 b/d) in PADD 3. The H2 forecast for non-refinery diesel supply now includes our latest views on renewable diesel consumption in North America for the forecast period.
Table of contents
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Has the US demand profile been permanently reshaped?
- Gasoline and EVs: PADD 5 leads the energy transition
- Diesel/gasoil: growth despite EV/FCV penetration
- Jet fuel: recovery by mid-2020s, then displacement in 2040-2050 amid carbon abatement
- Fuel oil: Shift to LSFO overcome by gas displacement for marine demand
- Investments and Transactions
- Will the US refining sector recover the utilisation lost?
- Will the wave of renewable diesel projects come online as planned?
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In Summary
- Methodology Update
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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US investments and closuresUS all supply balanceUS biomass-based diesel forecast
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US EV split by PADDUS car parc and gasoline demandMedium duty commercial EV salesHeavy duty commercial EV salesUS residential heating oil demand
What's included
This report contains:
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