Commodity Market Report

United States product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

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27 January 2021

United States product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

Report summary

Long-term outlook for the fundamentals of the United States oil products market. The second half of 2020 brought profound shifts to US refined product markets. While the demand destruction did not deepen from the lows seen in April, the recovery has been significantly prolonged compared to our H1 2020 outlook. The US supply landscape has permanently changed after a wide swath of announced closure in 2020. The two biggest market-shifting shutdowns were Marathon Martinez (160,000 b/d) in PADD 5 and Shell Convent (250,000 b/d) in PADD 3. The H2 forecast for non-refinery diesel supply now includes our latest views on renewable diesel consumption in North America for the forecast period.

Table of contents

    • Gasoline and EVs: PADD 5 leads the energy transition
    • Diesel/gasoil: growth despite EV/FCV penetration
    • Jet fuel: recovery by mid-2020s, then displacement in 2040-2050 amid carbon abatement
    • Fuel oil: Shift to LSFO overcome by gas displacement for marine demand
  • Investments and Transactions
  • Will the US refining sector recover the utilisation lost?
  • Will the wave of renewable diesel projects come online as planned?
    • Methodology Update

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • US investments and closures
  • US all supply balance
  • US biomass-based diesel forecast
  • US EV split by PADD
  • US car parc and gasoline demand
  • Medium duty commercial EV sales
  • Heavy duty commercial EV sales
  • US residential heating oil demand

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    United States H2 20

    XLSX 2.93 MB

  • Document

    United States product markets long-term outlook H2 2020

    PDF 855.70 KB