Insight
Lower 48 green shoots: step-outs and 2021 exploration
Report summary
Lower 48 exploration always has a trigger price. Coming out of the 2015 crash, companies needed US$60/bbl to underwrite the associated risk of stepping out from known projects. Today, that trigger price is arguably US$70/bbl. Spot prices are at that level, and the activity data confirms that things are picking up. Some exploration projects that were shelved 18 months ago are being recapitalized. Non-core rig count has been increasing and it will grow even more. In this Insight, we explore five projects that span from exploration to emerging development that have piqued our interest across Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. All are oil focused and include a diverse set of operators, public and private alike. EOG, Diamondback, ExxonMobil, and Marathon all have credibility. But some smaller players may be the ones to watch on the cost-management side.
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