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Country Report 08 January 2021

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2022. The written document is accompanied this month by a related excel data download only. The slide pack will resume with the early February report. Following the OPEC+ meeting on 4-5 January 2021, Saudi Arabia agreed to make additional cuts of 1 million b/d in February and March 2021. Our assumption continues to hold that OPEC+ will need to continue to exercise similar production restraint as it did in January through the first half of the year. Changes to the supply outlook are small this update: 2020 supply is revised down 60,000 b/d; 2021 down 255,000 b/d; and 2022 up 130,000 b/d. Global supply is forecast to increase by 1.8 million b/d in 2021 to 96.8 million b/d. Production in 2022 grows at a faster pace, adding over 3 million b/d to average close to 100 million b/d, just 0.5 million b/d below the 2019 peak.

Global supply: Saudi Arabia to cut deeper; US Lower 48 revised up in 2022
- OPEC+ agrees small rise in output for some as Saudi Arabia pledges 1 million b/d cut
- Non-OPEC: outlook little changed, minor revisions downwards for 2020 and 2021, and upwards for 2022
- US Lower 48: drilling activity recovering earlier than expected in key regions
- OPEC: downward revision due to Saudi Arabia cuts