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10 years of Central Asian gas to China: what’s to come in the 2020s?

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19 December 2019

10 years of Central Asian gas to China: what’s to come in the 2020s?

Report summary

December 2019 marks the 10th anniversary of piped gas exports from Central Asia to China. The first Turkmen gas began its 10,000-kilometre journey on 14 December 2009, launching a transformational period for Central Asia and China alike. China’s gas demand has trebled over the last decade, with more than 15% of its supply from Central Asia – Turkmenistan and, to a lesser extent, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. At the heart of the strategic relationship are two of the largest gas pipeline networks in the world: the Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline across Central Asia and China’s own West-East Gas Pipelines. The former now offers capacity for 55 bcm a year. So, what is the state of play for Central Asian gas in China and what will the 2020s hold? We address six pressing questions that will shape the next decade.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Central Asian gas to China – visualising the first decade
    • Upstream/supply side
    • 1. Will Line D of Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline face more delays?
    • 2. Will Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan commit to higher volumes?
    • 3. Will the seasonality of Central Asian flows improve?
    • Market/demand side
    • 1. Will the competitive position of Central Asian gas improve?
    • 2. Will China’s market reforms benefit Central Asian gas?
    • 3. Will China’s gas infrastructure be ready for extra Central Asian gas?

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline and West-East Gas Pipelines
  • Central Asian gas to China – monthly volumes
  • Central Asian gas to China – annual volumes
  • Central Asian gas to China – price trends
  • Central Asian gas to China – latest base case outlook
  • Central Asian gas to China – delivered cost comparison at Shanghai city gate
  • China’s gas reform journey
  • China’s West-East gas infrastructure

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    10 years of Central Asian gas to China: what’s to come in the 2020s?

    PDF 1.68 MB