Deal Insight
Aker BP buys Lundin Energy: what next for the "super" independent?
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Aker BP has agreed to acquire Lundin Energy's upstream business. At US$15 billion, this is the biggest deal globally in 2021 and Norway's biggest since Statoil's merger with Norsk Hydro in 2006. Consolidation among E&Ps is a megatrend and there is logic to this tie-up. Already a low cost and low carbon producer, the added scale sets Aker BP up for success as one of the industry's most resilient E&Ps. Aker BP will now produce over 400,000 boe/d in 2022, increasing to over 500,000 boe/d in 2028, making it comfortably the second biggest producer in Europe behind only Equinor. The portfolio is underpinned by a joint 31.6% stake in Johan Sverdrup, which makes up over 50% of the value of the combined business.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Transaction details
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Upstream assets
- Portfolio evolution
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Lundin's key assets
- Johan Sverdrup (20%)
- Edvard Grieg Area (65%, operator)
- Wisting (35%)
- Deal analysis
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Upsides and risks
- Upsides
- Risks
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Strategic rationale
- Lundin Energy
- Aker BP
- What next for the combined entity?
- What could Aker BP sell?
- Oil & gas pricing and assumptions
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Executive summary: Table 1
- Market premium to WM NPV & top 10 producers' emissions intensity
- Deal analysis: Table 1
- Deal analysis: Table 2
- Oil & gas pricing and assumptions: Table 1
- Oil & gas pricing and assumptions: Table 2
- Combined production and capex outlook
- Aker BP free cash flow & net debt evolution
- Portfolio by capex, equity and NPV10
- Upstream assets: Table 1
What's included
This report contains:
