Insight
Are BP or Shell next in line for big M&A?
Report summary
Will Shell and BP respond to ExxonMobil and Chevron with big upstream takeovers of their own? Have the US Majors triggered a wider M&A ‘arms race’ to scale up in advantaged oil? Which Independents are prime acquisition targets? What about a Shell-BP merger? A flavour of the questions we’ve been getting from clients over the past week or so, mirroring the narrative of a predictably excitable media. In this note, we consider whether large-scale upstream acquisitions – think corporate takeovers over US$20 billion – might be on Shell or BP’s radar.
Table of contents
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Might Shell or BP make a large upstream acquisition in response to the US Majors’ recent moves?
- 1. It would mean a fundamental U-turn on strategy
- 2. Affordability and potential targets are problematic
- 3. Big M&A is rarely reactive
- But, why might Shell or BP consider a large upstream acquisition?
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Stay the course
- BPX spin-off an outside bet?
- What about a Shell-BP ‘mega-merger’?
- Post-script: Consolidation
Tables and charts
This report includes 4 images and tables including:
- Wood Mackenzie oil and gas production forecasts and resource estimates
- Evolution of market premium/discount to WoodMac NPV
- Market premium/discount to WoodMac NPV (%), bubbles proportional to upstream NPV
- Corporate deals in upstream oil & gas, monthly
What's included
This report contains:
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